Ljupčo Kocarev, President of the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts (MANU) with a column for the Macedonian daily newspaper Nova Makedonija:
History teaches us that empires are born and fall. There is no better source for defining imperialism than the Encyclopedia Britannica, first printed in 1768 in a country that was a great empire in the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries. According to the encyclopedia, "imperialism" means "state policy, practice or advocacy for the expansion of power and domination, particularly through direct territorial takeover or through the attainment of political and economic control over other areas". Furthermore, imperialism "always involves the use of power, be it military, economic or in a more subtle form".
After World War II, the U.S. military participated in four major wars (Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan) and served more than 200 times in nearly 70 countries due to conflict or potential conflict. Although America has few real colonies: Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Guam, Samoa, and several other smaller islands, America's military presence is ubiquitous - some 200,000 people are stationed at some 800 overseas military bases in over 150 countries. But achieving and maintaining global hegemony costs a lot, so America began scaling back its overseas commitments, left Iraq (under Barack Obama) and withdrawn from Afghanistan (under Joe Biden).
Primarily, these, but also many other indicators that you can read about in magazines and books by eminent thinkers and professors at top US universities, are facts that indicate that "the American empire is falling apart before our eyes" (Title from text by Professor Rebecca Gordon published in The Nation magazine in January 2021). According to many, the collapse of the American empire will be painful, and some even predict that "the end of the American empire will not be peaceful" (title of a text by Professor Niall Ferguson published in The Economist in August 2021). But whether, when and how the American empire will collapse and what consequences this will have for world geopolitics is not the subject of this text and I will write about it elsewhere.
Macedonia is therefore facing a crucial challenge: What is the next step?
On the other hand, several indicators show that the Western Balkans has long ceased to be one of the EU's priorities. Macedonia is therefore facing a crucial challenge: What is the next step?
Before I answer the question, however, I would like to use two examples to draw attention to the previously contradicting EU policy of enlarging the European family. The first example concerns the Republic of Cyprus, which joined the EU in 2004 with an unresolved military conflict and without 40 percent of its nominal territory. Namely in the northern half of its territory since 1974. There is another self-proclaimed independent state - the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is partially recognized internationally (only by Turkey), with a state of war between these two entities, i.e. the armistice and the line of demarcation between the two Cypriots, republics are currently under surveillance, UN peacekeeping forces.
The second example concerns the British Isles. 1973 the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland become full members of the EU (then EEC). However, the Republic of Ireland has expressly established territorial claims on Great Britain in its own constitution, i.e. it does not recognize British sovereignty over Northern Ireland and regards it as part of its own territory.
These two examples show that there were serious unsolved problems such as frozen military conflicts, official territorial claims and denial of national sovereignty, and the EU did not set conditions for their prior resolution by the countries that brought these problems to the EU. On the contrary, we are witnesses that today Macedonia is exposed to nebulous blackmail related to the Macedonian language and its historical past.
So if the American empire gradually weakens, that is, in the opinion of many, is falling apart, and the EU not only does not have a fair and consistent approach to its possible expansion, but also shows no interest in the Western Balkans: What next? What should Macedonia do?
A recent report on Strategic Forecasts published by the European Commission in September 2021 identified four major global trends: (1) climate change and other environmental challenges, (2) digital hyperlinks and technological transformation, and (3) pressures on democracy and European values, and (4) changes in global order and demographics.
The answer to the above questions should be sought in the light of this report. Each of the four global trends deserves special attention, taking into account the specifics of Macedonia. The space does not allow me to go into all of them, so today I will not go into the first, for many analysts the greatest challenge, but the integral text will contain more detailed information on all four trends/challenges.
...the past 30 years I have only been able to see stages of destruction in Macedonian science
Globalization is not a new phenomenon, and its roots can be traced back to 1817 when British economist David Ricardo explained how a country can benefit from both imports and exports. The last, fourth phase of globalization, accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic and driven by the movement of bits and bytes, not goods, is reshaping our world. This is why the second trend/challenge is so important that countries without strong digital hyperlinks and a technologically capable workforce are less likely to be economically successful. This trend/challenge once again highlights the important role science plays in the development of countries. Unfortunately, however, over the past 30 years I have only been able to see stages of destruction in Macedonian science.
In the interests of Macedonia's future and the well-being of its people, I hope that we will finally find the strength to find science as the "right guide" for our future instead of party and personal interests. So I insist again that we abandon the nebulous ongoing reforms in education forever and move closer to the real development of science and education.
As for the third trend/challenge - pressure on democracy and European values - Macedonia faces enormous problems in terms of the rule of law and the democratization of institutions. However, I believe that a crucial problem in Macedonia is the attitude of some Macedonian authorities towards the citizens. As I have already spoken and written many times, this relationship is characterized by arrogance, unreasonableness, ruthlessness, immorality, greed and lust for power, which resulted in: “Today everything is bought and sold. Even what people think is priceless. It's usually the cheapest."
The Bulgarian Agreement (2017), the Prespa Agreement with Athens (2018) and the Constitutional Amendment (2019) are a source of instability in the region for one simple reason: Any country that builds its future on illegal and undignified documents, and these are the three documents imposed by the geopolitical games of the great powers, are doomed to failure. Macedonia does not need the EU at any cost, but rather reforms that bring about a stable society with European values. I repeat, we need European values, not the EU.
I repeat, we need European values, not the EU.
Today the geopolitical order is multipolar and is mainly shaped by the interrelationships of the three kingdoms (listed in alphabetical order): China, Russia and the United States.
As for the fourth challenge - changes in the global order and demographics - I think Macedonia should take a fundamental stance towards the great rich. The submissiveness of some Macedonian politicians to the United States is unproductive and so it should be clearly stated that "nobody respects the slippery slopes, at least those that slide" that we unfortunately see every day in Macedonia. Remember that contrary to today's subservience, Yugoslavia criticized both military interventions, the American one in Vietnam and the Soviet one in Czechoslovakia - that is why it was respected by both the United States and the Soviet Union precisely because of this position of principle.
In light of all this, the phrase "the EU is the only solution" is meaningless. The EU may seem the better solution at first, but it is certainly not the only one. It is the dream of the EU instead of the EU that has actually led us to a dead end and we need wisdom to slowly emerge from the abyss.
We all dream. Although “dreaming is not just an act of communication; it is also an aesthetic activity, a game of imagination, a game of value in itself ”(Milan Kundera), but“ facts are better than dreams” (Winston Churchill). Unfortunately, for the past two or three years, Macedonian leaders have relied unreservedly on dreams, particularly the dream of the EU, which has made Macedonia a puppet of the great empires that determine its fate. It's time to change that.
In 1858, two years before the Civil War began, Abraham Lincoln said, "A house divided against itself, cannot stand ... I do not expect the Union to be dissolved — I do not expect the house to fall — but I do expect it will cease to be divided.”. More than 160 years later, the United States still exists but is becoming increasingly divided. Today, 30 years after independence, Macedonia is divided like never before. I'm not sure if and how long it will take, but in order to survive the divisions must end immediately. In the name of - let the divisions end, I hope that we will all contribute to Macedonia building its future with dignity and pride, and that the days of a trapped and humiliated state will forever be behind us.
Translation from Macedonian was provided by the team of History.mk
